Trends Suggest Danger Ahead
Five CFP Top 25 teams on upset watch in Week 11
13 November 2026
By Larry Little
Teams that defeated Top 10 opponents (AP through Week 9, CFP Week 10 onward) this season are 6-11 in their subsequent games, including 0-5 against ranked opponents. Two of those six wins were against G6 opponents, and another was against an FCS opponent.
The ensuing woes have plagued ranked and unranked teams alike. Teams that were ranked when defeating a Top 10 opponent were 3-6 in their next game (2-6 vs. P4, 0-1 vs. ranked), while teams that were unranked when defeating a Top 10 opponent were 3-5 in their next game (2-5 vs. FBS, 1-5 vs. P4, 0-4 vs. ranked).
Four teams are in this situation in Week 12: Notre Dame, Tennessee, USC and Utah.
NOTRE DAME vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Notre Dame defeated No. 1 Miami-FL last week and hosts Boston College (4-5) this week. The Irish are heavy favorites (~30 points) against the Golden Eagles, so maybe they are safe. Then again, Georgia was a heavy favorite (~20 points) at home against Auburn the week after winning at then-No. 6 Alabama in Week 6.
In 1993, Notre Dame defeated top-ranked Florida State and subsequently lost to Boston College on a last-second field goal the following week. This is the fourth time the Irish have played the Eagles after defeating a ranked opponent since that 1993 loss:
TENNESSEE at TEXAS A&M
Then-No. 16 Tennessee defeated then-No. 8 Kentucky last week, and UT travels to Texas A&M (4-5) this week. The Volunteers are 2-1 on the road this season with wins at Georgia Tech (2-7) and at Arkansas (3-6) and a loss at South Carolina (6-3). Tennessee has lost three straight true road games against teams that finished the regular season with at least six wins. UT’s last such win was at Vanderbilt (6-6) in the 2024 finale, losing at Ohio State (2024 CFP First Round), at Alabama (2025) and at South Carolina (2026) since.
Tennessee’s lone previous game at College Station was Oct. 8, 2016. The ninth-ranked Vols forced overtime with three touchdowns in the fourth quarter’s final eight minutes. The teams traded field goals in the first extra possession, but the Aggies found the end zone and forced the Vols into a seventh turnover in the second session to prevail 45-38.
The Vols lost at top-ranked Alabama the following week, at unranked South Carolina the following week, and finished the season 9-4 with a win against Nebraska in the Music City Bowl (Nebraska’s last bowl appearance until the 2024 season). Texas A&M improved to 6-0 for the first time since 1994, but the Aggies lost at top-ranked Alabama in their next game and finished 8-5, including a loss to unranked Kansas State in the Texas Bowl. Neither the Volunteers nor the Aggies finished the season ranked in the AP Top 25.
USC at INDIANA
Then-unranked USC defeated second-ranked Ohio State in Week 9 and plays at No. 9 Indiana this week after an open date in Week 10. The Trojans and Hoosiers have two common opponents this season. Both won at Rutgers — USC 42-35 and Indiana 47-15. Ohio State defeated fifth-ranked Indiana in Week 7 and then fell to the subsequent curse against the Trojans two weeks later.
This is USC’s first game at Indiana since defeating the Hoosiers in 1981 (21-0). The Trojans’ win at Purdue last season was the program’s first in the Hoosier state since Oct. 22, 2011, at Notre Dame (31-17). USC is 0-7 at Notre Dame since.
Last year’s win at Purdue also snapped USC’s 14-game losing streak in the Central and Eastern time zones. The Trojans are 4-18 in the Central and Eastern time zones since a 42-29 win at Syracuse in their second game of the 2012 season. That includes a 4-9 record under Lincoln Riley.
USC’s last win against a ranked opponent in the Central or Eastern time zone was Oct. 17, 2009, at 25th-ranked Notre Dame (34-27). The Trojans’ last win against a Top 10 opponent in the Central or Eastern time zone was five weeks earlier at eighth-ranked Ohio State (18-15).
Here are USC’s games in the Central or Eastern time zones since that season:
UTAH at ARIZONA
Utah, meanwhile, is 26-21-2 all-time against Arizona, including a 7-5 edge since joining the Pac-12 Conference in 2011. Arizona won each of the past two meetings (2023 at Tucson, 2024 at Salt Lake) after Utah won six straight meetings. The Utes are 12-11-2 all-time at Tucson.
Arizona and Utah have three common opponents this season: BYU, Cincinnati and Iowa State. The Wildcats lost 28-17 at BYU in Week 2, while Utah defeated the Cougars 28-20 at home last week. Both teams defeated Cincinnati — Arizona 34-7 (home), Utah 49-25 (away) — and Iowa State — Arizona 39-3 (home), Utah 31-17 (away).
This is Arizona’s first home game against a Top 10 opponent since losing to seventh-ranked Washington 31-24 in 2023. The Wildcats defeated top-ranked Washington 16-3 at home in 1992 but lost their next 10 home games against Top 10 opponents. That skid stopped in 2005 with a 52-14 victory against seventh-ranked UCLA. Since that game, Arizona is 7-9 at home against Top 10 opponents. The Wildcats have lost four straight such games since defeating 10th-ranked Utah 37-30 in 2015.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPSET?
BYU lost in two overtimes at UCF last month one week removed from a physical, emotional win against second-ranked Notre Dame. The Cougars again are one week removed from a physical, emotional game — this time, a loss at Utah.
BYU is roughly a touchdown favorite at home against unranked Baylor (6-3) this week. There isn’t much in Baylor’s résumé to suggest a win at Provo — at least not on the surface.
No opponent has passed for at least 300 yards against BYU this season, and three of the Cougars’ eight FBS opponents have passed for fewer than 200 yards. UCF passed for 260 yards in regulation (33 in overtime) against BYU, one yards less than Notre Dame (261).
However, BYU has allowed seven passing touchdowns (five in regulation) over the last three games and has no interceptions over the last five games after recording at least one in each of the season’s first four games.
Baylor lost by one point — and approximately 18 inches — in a Week 1 neutral-site game against Auburn. The Bears also provided one of TCU’s two FBS wins (17-6) and Kansas’ lone FBS win (25-24), the second of which led to Baylor parting ways with seventh-year head coach Dave Aranda.
BYU and Baylor have three common opponents this season: Arizona State, TCU and UCF. The Horned Frogs held both Baylor and BYU to their lowest scoring output of the season, but BYU won the game (17-10). The difference in outcomes in the teams’ two other common opponents is stark.
Baylor utilized the fired-coach bump, the Top 10-win-subsequent-loss curse, and a career night from quarterback DJ Lagway (319 yards, four touchdowns passing) to win 41-9 at the Bounce House one week after BYU’s loss at UCF.
BYU rebounded from that loss the following week with a 27-20 win at home against Arizona State. The Cougars never trailed against the Sun Devils, but the game was tied 17-17 entering the fourth quarter.
In Week 5, Lagway passed for 306 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another score in a 55-19 win at Arizona State. It was Aranda’s final win at Baylor.
EXPECTED SCORES
WEEK 10 RESULTS (11-4)
Arizona 23.35, TCU 12.73
Utah 25.29, BYU 17.70
Texas 23.28, Missouri 15.52
UCLA 29.27, Minnesota 10.21
South Carolina 30.07, Texas A&M 26.83
LSU 30.41, Alabama 28.32
Ohio State 32.35, Oregon 18.12
Houston 35.47, Cincinnati 24.91
Boise State 56.66, Colorado State 29.70
Tennessee 24.77, Kentucky 20.12
Notre Dame 32.16, Miami-FL 30.68
Georgia 33.75, Mississippi 28.26
Northwestern 22.63, Iowa 20.15
Florida 29.04, Oklahoma 25.41
Texas Tech 45.49, West Virginia 30.38
WEEK 11 GAMES
FRIDAY
UCLA 30.48, Illinois 16.85
Houston 30.65, Colorado 8.14
SATURDAY
Miami-FL 29.95, Duke 20.07
Wake Forest 33.82, SMU 23.95
Ohio State 31.99, Northwestern 24.42
Alabama 46.06, Vanderbilt 14.03
Tennessee 23.71, Texas A&M 13.66
Georgia 32.62, Missouri 16.11
Notre Dame 40.66, Boston College 9.48
Indiana 26.69, USC 21.12
Baylor 21.76, BYU 20.03
Oregon 21.48, Michigan 15.49
Mississippi 27.09, Oklahoma 21.89
Boise State 41.24, Oregon State 32.56
Florida 30.03, Kentucky 29.50
Utah 29.78, Arizona 24.21
LSU 23.08, Texas 21.75
Iowa 30.74, Purdue 15.14
Texas Tech 41.58, Oklahoma State 41.08
North Texas 44.77, UTSA 34.64