How It Started

It was the day after the release of the first-ever College Football Playoff rankings, and feathers were ruffled, especially in Waco, Texas. The Baylor Bears were ranked 13th—six spots behind TCU.

 

Both teams were 6-1 at the time of those initial CFP rankings. Baylor was 18 days removed from a thrilling victory over TCU, a game in which the Bears overcame a 21-point deficit in the final 11 minutes. In Waco, at least, it didn’t make sense, regardless of the fact that between the TCU game and the initial rankings Baylor lost by two touchdowns at unranked West Virginia.

 

Colleagues stood in the doorway of my office on the Baylor campus and debated the absurdity of the rankings. Gripes included various topics, including perceived SEC bias (four of the top six teams were from that conference), but most of the conversation revolved around TCU being ranked six spots higher than Baylor. One colleague—my then housemate—regularly gave us updates on the Twitter scuttlebutt about which team was more deserving of a higher ranking. Then, I interjected.

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“You know what, guys?” I said. “Baylor and TCU fans are going to spend the next six weeks bickering about this, and it’s not going to matter when Ohio State blocks both of them from the top four spots.”

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The room momentarily fell silent before my Twitter-scouring colleague said, “Get out! They lost at home to Virginia Tech, and they’re ranked 16th. No way they make the playoff.”

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“We’ll see,” I said. “But remember I said this in December.”

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Two weeks later, Ohio State won by 11 points at No. 8 Michigan State and jumped from No. 14 to No. 8 in the CFP rankings—one spot behind Baylor. Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-2) conspicuously crept into the CFP rankings at No. 25; the Gophers losses were by 23 points at TCU in mid-September and by four points at Illinois (4-4). The following week, Ohio State won by a touchdown at Minnesota, and the Buckeyes moved to No. 6 in the CFP rankings—one spot ahead of Baylor. Ohio State was one spot behind TCU, which was No. 4 in the previous week’s rankings but was passed by Alabama after the Crimson Tide defeated previous No. 1 and undefeated Mississippi State (which remained one spot ahead of TCU).

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When those Week 12 CFP rankings were released, my housemate looked at me and said, “You were right. It’s all about the money.”

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“Is it?” I asked.

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The next day, I began an analytical endeavor: Take all the names off the teams; look only at performances on the field against equally nameless opponents; and see what the data says. After the conference championship games, my data said:

 

1. Florida State

2. Alabama

3. Ohio State

4. Oregon

5. TCU

6. Baylor

 

The next morning, the CFP Committee’s rankings said:

 

1. Alabama

2. Oregon

3. Florida State

4. Ohio State

5. Baylor

6. TCU

 

Apparently, it wasn’t all about the money. The four most deserving teams made the playoff that year. Sure, my data had the top four in a different order, but the data produced the same four teams and the same semifinal matchups. In fact, the CFP committee selections reflected my data 30 of 32 times through eight of the playoff’s first nine renditions. (Data was not calculated for the 2020 season due to the wide variance of games played because of the COVID-19 pandemic).

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My algorithm is based on a 12-game base schedule; because of this, it doesn’t paint a realistic picture until all teams have played at least six games. Therefore, you won’t see any rankings from me until mid-October—the way all rankings and polls should be, in my opinion.

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Since that 2014 season, I have developed other algorithms and researched “blind” historical data. More information about my analytics is available in each subject’s respective section (merit rankings, relative scoring, etc.).

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The philosophy of BlindFold Sports is to answer the question: Does the perception match the data? Sometimes, yes. Sometimes, no. My goal is to pursue this endeavor in the spirit of Capt. Jack Ross, USMC, Judge Advocate Division, who calmly told Lt. Daniel Kaffee:

 

“I represent the government of the United States without passion or prejudice.”