Week 10 Merit Rankings Analysis
Alabama ranked ahead of Georgia? What gives?

31 October 2023

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By Larry Little

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Does data support perception? Answering that question is the basic philosophy of BlindFold Sports. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. Should the perception of a college football team within an individual season be influenced by its level of success in previous seasons? Debatable, but it happens.

 

This season’s Georgia team is a prime example. Georgia has won 25 consecutive games, consecutive national championships and again looks like an elite team. However, what have the Bulldogs accomplished this season? The data says not nearly as much as the other undefeated Power 5 teams.

 

Georgia ranks ninth in this season’s first BlindFold Sports Merit Rankings. Perhaps it is not surprising that the Bulldogs are the lowest-ranked team of the five remaining undefeated Power Five teams—Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington being the others. Certainly, though, it is surprising that Georgia is also ranked behind one-loss teams Texas, Alabama and Penn State. Wait… Alabama? Really?

 

BlindFold Sports Merit Rankings reflects only what a team has accomplished this season based on the following factors: opponent level (Power Five, Group of Five, FCS); game venue (home, road, neutral); possession-based margin of victory; and opponent record. Read more about merit rankings here.

 

BlindFold Sports does not factor subjective things such as eye test, nor do we predict the future. There are plenty of other media members and websites that do those things, and neither is our skill set.

 

Let’s look at Georgia’s eight wins this season objectively… blind, if you will: home vs. 6-2 FCS, home vs. 2-6 G5, home vs. 2-6 P5, home vs. 2-6 G5, road vs. 4-4 P5, home vs. 5-3 P5, road vs. 2-7 P5, neutral vs. 5-3 P5. Based on the BlindFold Sports algorithm (which, again, also factors possession-based margin of victory), that equates to three wins with a merit value of at least 5.00 points and zero wins with a merit value of at least 12.00 points.

 

Now, let’s look at Alabama’s seven wins this season objectively: home vs. 2-6 G5, road vs. 4-4 G5, home vs. 7-1 P5, road vs. 4-4 P5, road vs. 5-3 P5, home vs. 2-6 P5, home vs. 6-2 P5. Furthermore, Alabama’s lone loss was at home vs. 7-1 P5. That equates to five wins with a merit value of at least 5.00 points and three wins with a merit value of at least 12.00 points.

 

Alabama wins merit value:  60.44

Alabama losses merit value:  -8.43

Alabama total merit value:  52.01

 

Georgia wins merit value:  46.98

Georgia losses merit value:  0.00

Georgia total merit value:  46.98

 

Down the stretch, Georgia has more opportunity to earn merit than Alabama does. The Bulldogs have already played their FCS opponent; the Crimson Tide have not. Georgia’s four remaining games are home vs. 7-1 P5, home vs. 7-1 P5, road vs. 6-2 P5 and road vs. 4-4 P5. Alabama’s four remaining games are home vs. 6-2 P5, road vs. 5-3 P5, home vs. 7-2 FCS, road vs. 4-4 P5. Should both teams win their remaining four games, Georgia likely will overtake Alabama in total merit value.

 

Another case study is Oregon, which is 12th in this week’s rankings. The Ducks look much better than that; however, again, eye test is not our skill set. But has Texas (7-1) really accomplished that much more than Oregon (7-1)? The Longhorns lost a touchdown-possession, neutral-site game against a 7-1 P5 opponent. The Ducks lost a field goal-possession road game against an 8-0 P5 opponent. Let’s analyze each team’s seven wins.

 

Oregon:  home vs. 4-4 FCS, road vs. 3-5 P5, home vs. 2-7 G5, home vs. 4-4 P5, road vs. 2-6 P5, home vs. 4-4 P5, road vs. 6-2 P5.

 

Texas:  home vs. 4-4 G5, road vs. 7-1 P5, home vs. 5-3 G5, road vs. 3-5 P5, home vs. 6-2 P5, road vs. 3-5 P5, home vs. 5-3 P5.

 

Oregon wins merit value:  47.60

Oregon losses merit value:  -4.50

Oregon total merit value:  43.10

 

Texas wins merit value:  68.46

Texas losses merit value:  -7.00

Texas total merit value:  61.46

 

Simply put, Texas has played a better schedule. Oregon has four wins with a merit value of at least 5.00 points and one win with a merit value of at least 12.00 points. All seven of Texas’ wins currently have a merit value of at least 5.00 points; the Longhorns’ have three wins of at least 10.00 merit points and two of at least 12.00 merit points.

 

Furthermore, Texas’ win at Alabama currently is tied for the season’s “best” win along with LSU’s win at Missouri—both by 10 points on the road vs. 7-1 P5 opponent.