It's All Relative
TCU's relative scoring significantly lower than other CFP frontrunners

25 November 2022

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By Larry Little

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TCU is undefeated and No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. The college football world seems equally split between those who buy the Frogs and those who do not view them as a legitimate playoff-worthy team.

 

Sonny Dykes’ team is third in the latest BlindFold Sports Merit Rankings, a cumulative measurement of what a team has accomplished based on opponent level (Power Five, Group of Five, FCS); game venue (home, away, neutral); possession-based margin of victor/defeat; and opponent record. Georgia leads the way with 117.80 merit points, followed by Ohio State (101.82), TCU (95.04), Michigan (89.81), Clemson (80.12) and USC (70.65). Those are the only six Power Five teams with fewer than two losses.

 

Here is TCU’s game-by-game merit data compared with Michigan’s:

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The Merit Rankings data prove that TCU is definitely worthy of CFP consideration based upon what they have accomplished. So, why are so many people not buying the Frogs? Perhaps relative scoring provides the answer.

 

Relative scoring measures how a team performs against its opponents relative to how those opponents perform against other teams on their respective schedules. Only games against FBS competition and points scored in regulation are used in the measurement. This gives a significantly better picture of a team’s ability to score and keep an opponent from scoring than the traditional statistics of scoring offense and scoring defense.

 

Group of Five teams have not yet been analyzed this season, but their games against Power Five opponents are factored in the Power Five teams’ relative scoring numbers, which were tabulated after Week 12. Therefore, these numbers do not include Tuesday night’s MAC games or Thursday night’s Battle for the Golden Egg.

 

While these are called “relative offense” and “relative defense,” it’s not about a team’s offense or defense. Instead, it’s about points scored and points allowed. Therefore, defensive touchdowns and special-teams touchdowns factor into the relative offense and relative defense statistics equally. In other words, this measures how many points a team scores (not the offense) and how many points a team allows (not the defense).

 

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Relative Offense

Consider: Team A averages 38.3 points per game, and Team B averages 25.6 points per game. On the surface, Team A is clearly the better offense by virtue of averaging nearly two touchdowns more per game than Team B. However, if Team A’s opponents allow 37.7 points per game on average and Team B’s opponents allow 19.2 points per game on average, then Team B should be viewed as a better scoring team than Team A.

 

Oregon and Penn State provide a perfect example this season. The Ducks average 40.2 points per game, fourth among Power Five teams, while the Nittany Lions average 35.9 points per game, 17th among Power Five teams. This suggests that Oregon has the more potent offense.

 

However, relative scoring paints a different picture. The Ducks score 9.67 points per game more against their opponents than their opponents allow against other teams (relative offense), 12th among Power Five teams. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions score 12.28 points per game more against their opponents than their opponents allow against other teams, seventh among Power Five teams. Therefore, Penn State actually performs better than Oregon in terms of points scored; and, at the end of the day, points scored is the single most important number in any football game—if not the only number that matters.

 

Here’s a game-by-game look at Penn State’s and Oregon’s scoring performance this season (ADJ = points per game allowed by opponent against other opponents):

 

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While Penn State has a better relative offense than Oregon, there is an interesting thing  to notice. Oregon’s worst performance was against Georgia (-10.22), while Penn State’s worst performance was against Northwestern (-10.89).

 

Georgia has the nation’s best relative defense, on average holding opponents 18.42 points below their scoring average against other opponents. Oregon actually did better against Georgia than other teams by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, Northwestern on average holds opponents 1.04 points below their scoring average against other teams. Penn State did worse against Northwestern than other teams by more than a touchdown.

 

Weighing one team’s relative offense against its opponent’s relative defense provides insight into predicting a score in that game. We’ll get into that next week for the conference championship games.

 

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Relative Defense

Remember our explanative example above about relative offense? It works for points allowed, as well. Consider: Team A allows 21.6 points per game, and Team B allows 34.8 points per game. On the surface, Team A clearly has the better defense. However, if Team A’s opponents score 18.4 points per game on average and Team B’s opponents score 38.3 points per game on average, then Team B should be viewed as a better defensive team than Team A.

 

Georgia and Michigan are the top two scoring defenses among Power Five teams this season, allowing 11.1 points and 11.7 points per game, respectively. Likewise, both rank high in relative defense: Georgia is No. 1 among Power Five teams; Michigan is No. 6.

 

However, Georgia’s relative defense is significantly better. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to 18.42 points per game below their scoring average against other opponents (represented in relative defense as -18.42). The Wolverines have a strong relative defense of -11.06, but that’s more than a touchdown per game below Georgia’s.

 

Texas is 22nd among Power Five teams in scoring defense (20.6 ppg), but the Longhorns are holding their opponents to 10.66 points per game below their scoring average against other opponents—seventh-best among Power Five teams. The Longhorns have held six opponents at least 13 points below their scoring average against other opponents. However, they’ve also surrendered more points than their opponent’s scoring average against other opponents three times, most notably 13.44 points against Oklahoma State.

 

LSU is 15th in scoring defense (20.0 ppg) but fourth in relative defense (-11.72). The Tigers have held every opponent below their scoring average against other opponents with the exception of Florida (+6.56 points). Georgia has held every opponent below their scoring average against other opponents, while Alabama has done so against every opponent other than Tennessee (+8.89).

 

Georgia (-18.42) is easily the best team this season in relative defense. Iowa State (-13.62) is second in relative defense. The gap between Georgia and Iowa State is larger than the gap between Iowa State and 13th-ranked Penn State (-9.35).

 

For perspective, Georgia also led the nation in relative defense last season (-19.98). That was the best relative defense of any national champion since 1980. The Bulldogs were one of three national champions in that span with a relative defense of -18.00 or better; the other two were 2011 Alabama (-18.97) and 1991 Miami-FL (-18.76).

 

 

TCWho?

This brings us back to TCU and the question of why so many people aren’t buying the Horned Frogs as a legitimate playoff-caliber team. Perhaps the answer lies in relative scoring.

 

TCU enters this week 20th among Power Five teams in relative offense (6.34), 23rd in relative defense (-4.80) and 17th in total relative scoring (11.14)—the combination of relative offense and relative defense. Compare TCU’s current relative numbers to past national champions (data calculated for each champion since 1980).

 

The Frogs’ relative offense would be the lowest of any national champion since 2002 Ohio State (0.58), which was the lowest of any national champion since 1980. TCU would join that Buckeyes team, 1997 Michigan (3.86), 1983 Miami-FL (3.49) and 1980 Georgia (6.97) as the only national champions in that span to average less than a touchdown per game more against its opponents than those teams’ other opponents. The last national champion with a relative offense below 10.00 was 2009 Alabama (8.81).

 

TCU’s relative defense would be the lowest of any national champion since 1980. Only 2010 Auburn (-5.98) had a relative defense lower than -7.00 in that span. The last national champion with a relative defense below -10.00 was 2019 LSU (-8.38), a figure that was offset by the Tigers’ relative offense (23.90).

 

The Frogs’ total relative scoring would be the lowest of any national champion since 1980. Only six of the 46 national champions since 1980 (split titles in 1990, 1991, 1997 and 2003) were below 20.00 in total relative scoring. It hasn’t happened since 2002 Ohio State (17.45), and it hadn’t happened before that since 1990 Colorado (19.10) and 1990 Georgia Tech (18.99). The lowest total relative scoring of any national champion in the last 42 seasons was 1980 Georgia (15.12). Every national champion since 2011 was at least 25.00 in total relative scoring.

 

Here are the 10 best national champions in relative offense, relative defense and total relative scoring since 1980:

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2001 Miami-FL is the only team to rank in the top 10 in both relative offense and relative defense. 2018 Clemson is the only team to post a relative offense of at least 17.00 and a relative defense of at least -17.00.

 

Of course, that’s comparing TCU to past national champions. Nonetheless, the Frogs relative numbers are significantly below this season’s other contenders. Here are the relative numbers for this week’s CFP top 10:

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Relative scoring is fluid: TCU could score 45 points against Iowa State (allowing 17.10 ppg), and the Frogs’ previous opponents could play low-scoring games this weekend; that would push TCU’s relative offense close to 10.00. Iowa State averages 18.60 ppg in regulation against FBS opponents; therefore, a TCU shutout would improve the Frogs’ relative defense, pending results in their previous opponents’ games this weekend. Every game affects the data.

 

Perhaps TCU doesn’t look like a legitimate national title contender based on relative scoring, but history shows that the Frogs don’t have to be in order to make the College Football Playoff.

 

Florida State, the No. 3 seed in the inaugural CFP (2014 season), entered the playoff with less-than-impressive numbers in relative offense (9.96), relative defense (-2.73) and total relative scoring (12.69). Of course, the Seminoles were bludgeoned by Oregon, 59-20, in the semifinal.

 

Michigan State, the No. 3 seed in the 2016 CFP, entered the playoff with less-than-impressive numbers in relative offense (5.68) and total relative scoring (14.77), and a good-but-not-great relative defense (-9.09). Of course, the Spartans were blanked by Alabama, 38-0, in the semifinal.

 

Meanwhile, strong relative scoring numbers do not guarantee success in the CFP. The 2016 Ohio State team entered the playoff with impressive numbers in relative offense (15.54), relative defense (-17.32) and total relative scoring (32.86). The Buckeyes were little match for Clemson, 31-0, in the semifinal.