OUT OF THE RED
Analyzing the improbability of Indiana's national title

22 January 2026

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​By Larry Little

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For the first seven seasons of their existence, the New York Mets were atrocious. They lost three-fourths of their games (40-120) and finished 60.5 games out of first place in their inaugural season (1962). It remains the lowest single-season winning percentage (.250) in Major League Baseball history.

Things didn’t improve much after that first season. The Mets finished last in the 10-team National League five times in their first seven seasons and catapulted to ninth in the other two. The franchise was 394-737 (.348) from 1962 to 1968, losing at least 89 games every season, at least 100 games five times and at least 110 games three times. The Mets finished at least 40 games behind the NL champion each of their first four and five of their first six seasons.

This is the context in which the 1969 Mets came to be known as the Miracle Mets. Instead of losing 100 games, they won 100 games. Instead of finishing at least 24 games out of first place as they’d always done, they won the NL East Division by eight games in the first season of divisional play. The Mets swept Atlanta in the first ever NL Championship Series, outscoring the Braves 27-15 in three games.

New York then needed only five games to defeat the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles, who finished the regular season with 109 wins, in the World Series. The Mets were the first MLB expansion team to win a division title, a league title and the World Series, accomplishing all three feats in the same season.

It was arguably the most improbable championship seasons in sports history. Until now.

The Mets endured futility for less than a decade before winning a championship. That’s less than half a generation. Indiana University played its first recorded football game (1887) less than half a generation after the creation of the National League (1876) and treated its students, alumni and fans to multiple generations of futility.

Indiana entered the 2025 season with the most losses of any program in college football history. The program lost eight of its first nine games; the lone outlier was in 1888 when the Hoosiers tied DePauw in the season’s only game, for which the score is unknown. Indiana defeated Louisville Athletic Club (30-0) for the program’s first victory in the 1891 finale, finishing the season 1-5.

Euphoric moments and heralded seasons in Indiana Football lore have been few and far between, but they have happened.

Head coach James M. Sheldon’s squad that went 8-1-1 with wins against Notre Dame and Ohio State seems like decades ago. It was. It was 1905.

Who can forget the 1945 Hoosiers that went 9-0-1, won the Big Ten Conference and finished fourth in the AP rankings? The lone blemish was a 7-7 tie against Northwestern, which coincidentally is now the losingest program in college football history.

Indiana won its first eight games in 1967 before falling 33-7 at unranked Minnesota. The Hoosiers rebounded to defeat third-ranked Purdue 19-14, win the Big Ten and earn the program’s lone Rose Bowl appearance prior to this season.

Lee Corso guided Indiana to a 1979 Holiday Bowl victory over ninth-ranked BYU, but it was his lone bowl appearance during his decade as head coach. Bill Mallory sprinkled in successful seasons during his 13-year stint with the Hoosiers, but they never won more than eight games.

Quick trivia question: Who was Indiana head coach between Corso and Mallory? Sam Wyche — yes, that Sam Wyche — was 3-8 in his one season in Bloomington. He bailed for the Cincinnati Bengals and guided them to a Super Bowl appearance five years later and another two years after that. If only he’d stayed at Indiana longer.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers were 0-11 the season after Wyche left. It is remarkably the lone winless season in Indiana history.

Minimal research is necessary to understand why Indiana’s national title this season is considered the most improbable in college football history. Nonetheless, let’s dig into historical data to see how the program’s first title compares to past champions in terms of likeliness.

For this exercise, we will compare the NCAA-recognized national champions since the beginning of the AP rankings in 1936 unless otherwise stipulated.

ONE-YEAR TURNAROUNDS

Las Vegas listed Indiana as 100:1 to win the national title before the season began after the Hoosiers were 11-2 last season. Here is a look at national champions whose preseason odds likely would have been — or were — much longer.

Minnesota won national titles in 1936, 1940 and 1941 but fell on hard times in the back half of the 1950s. After finishing 12th in the AP rankings with a 6-1-2 record in 1956, the Gophers slid to 4-5-0 the following season, 1-8-0 in 1958 and 2-7-0 in 1959.

The Gophers opened the 1960 season with a 26-14 victory at 12th-ranked Nebraska, won their first seven games and climbed to No. 1 in the AP rankings before losing to unranked Purdue. Minnesota rebounded with a 26-7 victory at Wisconsin and returned to No. 1 in the final AP rankings, which were released at the end of the regular season. The Gophers lost to No. 6 Washington 17-7 in the “exhibition game” known as the Rose Bowl.

Four years later, Notre Dame also rebounded from a 2-7-0 season to win a national title. The Irish were 34-45-0 in the eight seasons prior to Ara Parseghian’s arrival, finishing above .500 only once (7-3-0 in 1957).

Parseghian guided Notre Dame to a 9-1-0 record in his first season (1964), falling at USC 20-17 in the season finale. The Irish did not play in a bowl game that season but were named national champions by the National Football Foundation. Notre Dame does not claim this national title, but it is recognized by the NCAA.

Nine national champions finished the previous season .500 or worse:

1960    Minnesota (2-7-0, .222, in 1959)

1964    Notre Dame (2-7-0, .222)

1940    Minnesota (3-4-1, .438)

1965    Michigan State (4-5-0, .444)

1962    USC (4-5-1, .450)

1938    TCU (4-4-2, .500)

1939    Texas A&M (4-4-1, .500)

1958    LSU (5-5-0, .500)

1964    Arkansas (5-5-0, .500)

Since the start of the BCS/CFP era in 1998, only four national champions won fewer than two-thirds of their games the previous season:

2000    Oklahoma (7-5, .583, in 1999)

2002    Ohio State (7-5, .583)

2003    LSU (8-5, .615)

2010    Auburn (8-5, .615)

Every national champion since 2010 Auburn won at least three-fourths of their games (.750 winning percentage) the previous season. Georgia in 1979 and Clemson in 1980 were both 6-5-0 before winning the national title the following season. Every national champion since has finished at least two games above .500 the previous season.

A LONGER LOOK AT HISTORY

Indiana’s improbability of winning a national title is about more than a one-year turnaround. Again, the Hoosiers were the losingest program in college football history to start the season. Each national champion since 1998 won at least 60 percent of the program’s games in the 75 years prior to winning the title.

Until Indiana. The Hoosiers’ winning percentage in the 75 seasons prior to this one was .379 (306-504-9). The next worst record of that group was 2006 Florida, which was 486-311-27 (.606) in the 75 seasons prior to winning the title.

Again: Indiana’s winning percentage was .379. Let that sink in.

Here is a list of the national champions with the worst winning percentages in the five-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 75-year and 100-year spans prior to winning the title.

PREVIOUS FIVE SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

.378     1960    Minnesota (16-27-2)

.388     1964    Notre Dame (19-30-0)

.430     2000    Oklahoma (24-32-1)

.440     1962    USC (21-27-2)

.447     1976    Pittsburgh (25-31-1)

.452     1958    LSU (21-26-5)

.456     2025    Indiana (26-31-0)

.482     1990    Georgia Tech (26-28-2)

.490     1939    Texas A&M (22-23-6)

.524     2009    Alabama (33-30-0)

PREVIOUS 10 SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

.350     1976    Pittsburgh (37-69-1)

.405     1990    Georgia Tech (43-64-4)

.441     1960    Minnesota (38-49-7)

.443     1990    Colorado (50-63-1)

.446     1957    Auburn (42-53-6)

.467     2025    Indiana (56-64-0)

.476     1958    LSU (46-51-8)

.500     1983    Miami-FL (55-55-0)

.509     1961    Alabama (49-47-12)

.510     1939    Texas A&M (46-44-9)

.510     1966    Notre Dame (50-48-1)

PREVIOUS 25 SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

.388     2025    Indiana (111-175-0)

.443     1976    Pittsburgh (109-138-9)

.447     1958    Iowa (86-108-13)

.483     1990    Georgia Tech (125-134-7)

.502     1964    Arkansas (126-125-6)

.508     1983    Miami-FL (129-125-3)

.514     1957    Auburn (117-110-16)

.521     1970    Nebraska (124-114-5)

.539     1959    Syracuse (106-90-9)

.541     1990    Colorado (145-123-2)

.541     1981    Clemson (136-115-5)

PREVIOUS 50 SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1973 (NCAA Division I-II-III split)

.407     2025    Indiana (233-341-5)

.515     1984    BYU (254-239-16)

.531     1976    Pittsburgh (248-218-22)

.541     1983    *Miami-FL (220-186-9)

.552     1990    Colorado (280-226-13)

.558     1981    Clemson (270-212-22)

.570     1987    *Miami-FL (260-195-9)

.584     1991    Washington (301-212-15)

.587     1990    Georgia Tech (312-217-15)

.589     1989    *Miami-FL (283-196-9)

PREVIOUS 75 SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1998 (BCS/CFP-era)

.379     2025    Indiana (306-504-9)

.606     2006    Florida (486-311-27)

.616     2008    Florida (500-307-24)

.622     2016    Clemson (512-308-19)

.626     2003    LSU (492-287-35)

.629     2010    Auburn (509-295-27)

.633     2018    Clemson (528-303-18)

.639     2007    LSU (513-282-34)

.649     2001    *Miami-FL (421-226-9)

.652     2019    LSU (550-288-25)

PREVIOUS 100 SEASONS

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1998 (BCS/CFP-era)

.396     2025    Indiana (395-609-28)

.605     2016    Clemson (630-406-34)

.612     2006    **Florida (574-358-36)

.614     2018    Clemson (647-401-34)

.617     2008    **Florida (596-363-36)

.624     2003    LSU (612-360-47)

.627     2010    Auburn (636-371-40)

.635     2007    LSU (641-358-47)

.649     2001    *Miami-FL (421-226-9)

.650     2019    LSU (696-366-40)

* Miami-FL joined “major college” football in 1942

** Florida joined “major college” in 1912

Indiana became the 10th program to win a national title after suffering a winless season. However, the Hoosiers were far from the quickest turnaround from said winless season. That title goes to 1961 Alabama, which went 11-0 in Bear Bryant’s fourth season six years after going 0-10 in 1955.

Here is that list of 10 programs is below, followed by other historical comparisons:

FEWEST SEASONS REMOVED FROM WINLESS SEASON

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

6          1961    Alabama (1955, 0-10-0)

7          1957    Auburn (1950, 0-10-0)

17        1996    Florida (1979, 0-10-1)

20        1993    Florida State (1973, 0-11-0)

35        1938    TCU (1903, 0-7-0)

35        1984    BYU (1949, 0-11-0)

41        2025    Indiana (1984, 0-11-0)

53        1960    Mississippi (1907, 0-6-0)

67        1948    Michigan (1881, 0-3-0)

88        1990    Georgia Tech (1902, 0-6-2)

MOST SEASONS SINCE LAST BOWL WIN

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

34        2025    Indiana (1991, Copper Bowl vs. Baylor)

19        1990    Colorado (1971, Bluebonnet Bowl vs. Houston)

8          1994    Nebraska (1986, Sugar Bowl vs. LSU)

8          2023    Michigan (2015, Citrus Bowl vs. Florida)

7          1980    Georgia (1973, Peach Bowl vs. Maryland)

7          2000    Oklahoma (1993, Sun Bowl vs. Texas Tech)

5          1988    Notre Dame (1983, Liberty Bowl vs. Boston College)

5          1990    Georgia Tech (1985, Hall of Fame Classic vs. Michigan State)

4          1985    Oklahoma (1981, Sun Bowl vs. Houston)

4          1987    Miami-FL (1983, Orange Bowl vs. Nebraska)

4          2002    Ohio State (1998, Sugar Bowl vs. Texas A&M)

4          2014    Ohio State (2010, Sugar Bowl vs. Arkansas)

FEWEST SEASONS REMOVED FROM SUB-.500 SEASON

NCAA-recognized national champions since 1936 (first AP rankings)

1          1940    Minnesota (1939, 3-4-1)

1          1960    Minnesota (1959, 2-7-0)

1          1962    USC (1961, 4-5-1)

1          1964    Notre Dame (1963, 2-7-0)

1          1965    Michigan State (1964, 4-5-0)

2          1941    Minnesota (1939, 3-4-1)

2          1958    LSU (1956, 3-7-0)

2          1961    Ohio State (1959, 3-5-1)

2          1966    Michigan State (1964, 4-5-0)

2          1968    Ohio State (1966, 4-5-0)

2          1988    Notre Dame (1986, 5-6-0)

2          1990    Georgia Tech (1988, 3-8-0)

2          2000    Oklahoma (1998, 5-6-0)

2          2010    Auburn (2008, 5-7-0)

2          2025    Indiana (2023, 3-9-0)